The Malthusian Theory of Population is the theory of exponential population and arithmetic food supply growth. The theory was proposed by Thomas Robert Malthus. He believed that a balance between population growth and food supply can be established through preventive and positive checks.
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| Population Theory by Malthus |
The Theory
Malthus’s theory of population is based on the following three postulates:
(i) Food is essential for man’s existence.
(ii) The passion between the sexes is essential and it will nearly remain in its present state.
(iii) The law of diminishing returns operates in agriculture.
From these postulates, he deduced that “the power of population is indefinitely greater than the power on earth to produce subsistence (food) for men”, and if the increase in population is unchecked by preventive checks, it leads to vice or misery.
The Malthusian doctrine is stated as follows:
(1) There is a natural sex instinct in human beings to increase at a fast rate. As a result, population increases in geometrical progression and if unchecked doubles itself every 25 years. Thus starting from 1, the population in successive periods of 25 years will be 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 128, and 256 (after 200 years).
(2) On the other hand, the food supply increases in a slow arithmetical progression due to the operation of the law of diminishing returns, based on the supposition that the supply of land is constant. Thus the food supply in successive similar periods will be 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 (after 200 years). It may be noted that Malthus never stated the law of diminishing returns as such.
(3) Since population increases in geometrical progression and the food supply in arithmetic progression, population tends to outrun food supply. In Malthus’s words: “It is the constant tendency in all animated life to increase beyond the nourishment prepared for it.” Thus an imbalance is created which leads to over-population. This is depicted in Figure 30.1.
The food supply in arithmetical progression is measured on the horizontal axis and the population in geometrical progression on the vertical axis. The curve M is the Malthusian population curve which shows the relation between population growth and increase in food supply. It rises upward swiftly.
(4) To control overpopulation resulting from the imbalance between population and food supply, Malthus suggested preventive checks and positive checks. The preventive checks are applied by a man to control the birth rate. They are foresight, late marriage, celibacy, moral restraint, etc. Malthus was against the artificial methods of population control and considered them as “conjugal fraud.”
If people fail to check growth of population by the adoption of preventive checks, positive checks operate in the form of vice, misery, famine, war, disease, pestilence, floods and other natural calamities which tend to reduce population and thereby bring a balance with food supply.
According to Malthus, preventive checks are always in operation in a civilized society, for positive checks, are crude. Malthus wrote: “In proportion as mankind rises above the conditions of the beasts, the population is restrained by the fear of want, rather than by want itself.” Malthus appealed to his countrymen to adopt preventive checks in order to avoid vice or misery resulting from positive checks. The Mathusian theory is illustrated in Table 30.1.
Major Elements of the Malthusian Theory
Population and Food Supply:
The Malthusian theory explained that the population grows in a geometrical fashion.
The population would double in 25 years at this rate. However, the food supply grows in an arithmetic progression. Food supply increases at a slower rate than the population. That is, the food supply will be limited in a few years. The shortage of food supply indicates an increasing population.
Checks on Population:
When the increasing population rate is greater than the food supply, disequilibrium exists. As a result, people will not get enough food even for survival. People will die due to lack of food supply. Adversities such as epidemics, wars, starvation, famines and other natural calamities will crop up which are named as positive checks by Malthus. On the contrary, there are man-made checks known as preventive checks.
Positive Checks:
Nature has its own ways of keeping a check on the increasing population. It brings the population level to the level of the available food supply. The positive checks include famines, earthquakes, floods, epidemics, wars, etc. Nature plays up when the population growth goes out of hand.
Preventive Checks:
The preventive measures such as late marriage, self-control, simple living, help to balance the population growth and food supply. These measures not only check the population growth, but can also prevent the catastrophic effects of the positive checks.
Criticism of Malthusian Theory of Population
The Malthusian theory was criticised based on the following observations:
- In Western Europe, the population was rising at a rapid rate. At the same time, the food supply had also increased due to technological developments.
- Many times, food production has increased more than the population. For eg., 2% of the total population is working in the agricultural sector in the US. Still, the total GDP is more than 14 trillion dollars.
- Malthus theory stated that one of the reasons for limited food supply is non-availability of land. However, the amount of food supply in various countries has increased due to increased globalization.
- The estimations for the geometric growth of population and arithmetic growth of population were not provided by Malthus. It was stated that the rate of growth is not consistent with Malthus’ theory.
Is Malthusian Theory Valid Today?
We must, however, add that though the gloomy conclusions of Malthus have not turned out to be true due to several factors which have made their appearance only in recent times, yet the essentials of the theory have not been demolished. He said that unless preventive checks were exercised, positive checks would operate. This is true even today. The Malthusian theory fully applies in India.
We are at present in that unenviable position which Malthus feared. We have the highest birth-rate and the highest death-rate in the world. Grinding poverty, ever-recurring epidemics, famine and communal quarrels are the order of the day. We are deficient in food supply.
Our standard of living is incredibly low. Who can say that Malthus was not a true prophet, if not for his country, at any rate for the Asiatic countries like India, Pakistan and China? No wonder that intense family planning drive is on in India at present.
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